Commercial Real Estate Lending Update: Key Rates, Fed Signals & What’s Driving Mortgage Pricing This Week [April 2025]

This Week's Major U.S. Economic Reports

Monday, April 21

• 10:00 AM – U.S. Leading Economic Indicators (March)

  Previous: -0.3% Median Forecast -0.5%

  This composite index signals the direction of the economy. A decline can suggest tightening credit or weaker growth.

Wednesday, April 23

• 9:45 AM – S&P Flash U.S. Services PMI & Manufacturing PMI (April)

  Previous: U.S. Services PMI 54.4 & Manufacturing PMI 50.2

  Median Forecast: U.S.Services PMI 53.0 & Manufacturing PMI 49.3

  These PMIs reflect business activity in key sectors. A services PMI above 50 signals growth, which can affect demand for retail, office, and industrial spaces.

• 10:00 AM – New Home Sales (March)

  Previous: 676,000 Median Forecast: 680,000

  While focused on residential, it impacts builder confidence, land development, and can indirectly influence mixed-use or infill project financing.

• 2:00 PM - Fed Beige Book

  This report is published eight times per year.

  The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.

Thursday, April 24

• 8:30 AM – Durable Goods Orders & Core Durable Orders (March)

  Previous: Durable-goods orders 0.6% / Core durable orders -0.3%

  Median Forecast: Durable-goods orders 1.4%

  Core orders reflect capital investment. A weak number suggests cautious business spending, impacting warehouse, industrial, and commercial leasing activity.

• 8:30 AM - Initial jobless claims

  Previous: 215,000 Median Forecast: 220,000

• 10:00 AM – Existing Home Sales (March)

  Previous: 4.26M Median Forecast: 4.10M

  While residential, it affects pricing dynamics, investor sentiment, and sometimes financing flow between SFR and CRE investors.

Friday, April 25

• 10:00 AM – Consumer Sentiment (Final, April)

  Confidence influences retail behavior, lease decisions, and developer projections—especially for retail and mixed-use developments.

Fed Signals & Commentary

This week features several Fed speakers, including Presidents Harker, Kashkari (twice), Barkin, Musalem, and Bostic, as well as Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Their commentary can influence market expectations around interest rates, lending conditions, and inflation outlook—all critical for CRE investors and lenders.

• Patrick Harker (Philadelphia Fed) 4/22 9:30 am: Known for insights on credit and small business lending. Any signals of tightening could influence SBA and bank-backed CRE deals.

• Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis Fed) 4/22 2:00 pm: A key voice on inflation policy. If he signals rate hikes or resistance to cuts, expect longer-term pressure on CRE loan rates. Notably, he's scheduled to speak twice this week, offering added insight into his stance.

• Tom Barkin (Richmond Fed) 4/22 2:30pm: Often speaks on labor markets and commercial activity—relevant for demand in retail and office sectors.

• Alberton Musalem (St. Louis Fed) 4/23 9:30 am: New to the Fed, his statements offer clues on how the newer leadership may view growth, credit, and inflation risks.

• Christopher Waller (Fed Governor) 4/23 9:30 am: Highly influential. Known for his academic approach, his stance on rate policy and credit risk can directly shape bond yields and CRE borrowing costs.

• Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) 4/23 7:40 pm: Focuses on regional economic health. Watch for remarks about credit flow and real estate trends in the Southeast. With two scheduled appearances this week, his commentary may highlight shifting regional trends.

Key Rate Benchmarks for CRE Lending

When it comes to commercial mortgage pricing, benchmark interest rates are essential guides for both lenders and borrowers:

• 5-Year and 10-Year Treasury Yields remain primary reference points for fixed-rate CRE loans.

• The Prime Rate influences bank-originated financing and floating-rate deals.

• The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is the go-to index for modern floating-rate structures.

In today’s environment, commercial real estate rates range between 5.5% and 15%, depending on factors like:

• Property type and condition

• Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio

• debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)

• Borrower financial strength

• Market location

• Lender appetite (banks, private capital, non-bank lenders)

Lending Market Snapshot

• SBA 504 Loans: Holding near 6.5%

• DSCR Loans: 7.5% to 9.5% for stabilized properties, depending on leverage and location

• Bridge Loans: 9% to 13%, especially for transitional or value-add assets

• Private Lenders: Active, but favor lower leverage and experienced sponsors

Takeaway for CRE Investors

With mixed economic indicators and no clear Fed pivot in sight, investors and borrowers should be strategic:

• Lock in rates if financing stable properties

• Stay flexible with bridge or interest-only terms if repositioning

• Watch regional lending trends in the Beige Book for local insights

Let’s Talk Strategy

I help commercial real estate professionals structure financing that fits today’s market conditions—whether you're an owner-user, investor, or developer.

If you want help navigating this week’s trends and rate benchmarks for your next deal, let’s connect. Contact me: dgoldman@goldmanfinancialgroup.com

SBA 504 Loan Rates

SBA 504 is a loan product guaranteed by the Small Business Administration for the financing of owner-occupied real estate and/or machinery and equipment. LTVs go up to 90% and may be used for construction or existing properties.

SBA 7a Mortgage Rates

SBA 7a is another loan product guaranteed by the Small Business Administration, but may be used for the financing of owner-occupied, real estate, machinery, equipment, inventory, FF&E, or working capital. LTVs go up to 85% and may be used for construction or existing properties.